Nicu Popescu, the former Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration of the Republic of Moldova and director of the “Wider Europe” programme at the European Council on Foreign Affairs analysed the challenges posed by the promotion and spread of propaganda during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as their effects on security at a geopolitical level, in an interview offered to Geostrategic Pulse Magazine.

Geostrategic Pulse: How does Russia see/perceive Europe and the Western institutions?

Nicu Popescu: Europe is seen as a region in decline. The EU is seen as an institution in crisis. NATO is still perceived as a threat, while the crisis in the transatlantic relationship is connected to the Trump administration and is perceived as temporary, for now. From Russia’s point of view, the Western institutions remain solid and dangerous enough, geopolitically speaking, even if they are going through a series of crises.

Russia’s involvement in European affairs by means of hybrid and covert tactics are aimed – among other things – at eroding the public trust in those who govern them. Do you believe that Europe and the USA are similar targets to Russia?

Most certainly. Although Russia’s practices vis-à-vis Europe are more exacerbated and aggressive than those vis-à-vis the US. Obviously, we have witnessed unprecedented attacks such as the attempt in Great Britain to poison Skripal with what is, practically, a chemical weapon. Besides, most EU countries are reluctant to really respond or retaliate bilaterally against these hostile tactics implemented by Russia, as they are small countries. In the past years we have seen many incidents where Moscow has tried to influence domestic policies, including in countries that Russia used to have pretty good relations with. I am referring to countries such as Greece, Spain or Austria.

What can you tell us about the Russian strategies and tactics targeting European countries in areas/fields such as: politics, media, economy, culture, education, information, cyber-attacks, organised crime etc?

Russia’s interest is to weaken both the European Union and the transatlantic partnership. This objective is pursued on several levels. Attempts are made to take advantage of the splits between the countries in the EU and those between the EU and the US, as well as to deepen divisions within NATO members. Here it targets partnerships with all kinds of political forces – far-right and far-left political parties, separatist forces, as well as traditional parties. However, Russia has been employing such tactics for a long time – for over a decade. And I cannot say that they have been successful from Russia’s perspective. Russia’s behaviour has actually strengthened the unity of position towards Russia within EU. Sanctions were introduced with respect to the war in Ukraine. Very recently, and answering a call from Germany, the EU decided for the first time to impose sanctions against Russia because of Russian cyber-attacks against the Bundestag in 2015. Even a few months ago, it was unimaginable that Germany would be the first country to ask for and obtain the introduction of the first sanctions in the history of the EU related to cyber-attacks. For the past decade, the EU has invested significantly and with success both in the economic and energy domains with a view to reduce its energy dependency on Russia. The situation is far better than it was in the 2000s. And several countries, including France, the Netherlands and Poland, changed their cyber-security doctrines in order to adopt tougher policies towards states like Russia. After 2015 the European defence budgets were increased, even though in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic there is a risk that they will be reduced again.

What were the stakes of promoting and spreading the propaganda in order alter the power balance between Washington-Moscow and Beijing? Who are the main winners and losers in this informational battle?

During the first weeks of the pandemic, especially in March, it became obvious that the US and the EU were somehow confused, not least on the diplomatic front, while China invested a lot in promoting its own image. I am referring to the so called “mask diplomacy”. However, things evened out somehow, since then. After China made several positioning errors and caused a number of diplomatic incidents with regard to the COVID-19 pandemic, including in France and Sweden, for the past few months we have been hearing a lot about the so-called “wolf warrior diplomacy”. This term comes from a very popular Chinese action movie, which depicts a rougher Chinese diplomacy.

As the pandemic morphs into an economic crisis, it is absolutely obvious that neither China, nor Russia have and are willing to invest tens of billions of dollars to help tens of fragile states overcome the economic crisis. So, the importance of international players such as the EU, the USA, the IMF, the World Bank and other international institutions, which have the resources and are willing to help fragile states such as the Republic of Moldova, North Macedonia or Lebanon, increases once more. I believe that their ability to link their assistance with political conditions will increase once again. It is important not to look only at the short-term effects of the propaganda. The sustainability of these measures is important as well. And in this case, the West remains even more important since it has the necessary resources to operate and invest resources in the long-term.

To what extent does finding “scape goats” in the informational war focused on propaganda and disinformation have relevant implications on a geopolitical level, with consequences on state and non-state actors included?

This informational guerrilla war has effects on both the public opinion and on the diplomatic interactions. However, it is important that we place them in a wider context, and try to figure out both their immediate and long-term impact. There are many situations where apparent tactical informational victories can easily turn into strategic failures, if we see them on a longer term. The COVID-19 crisis offered us such an example. Some countries could provide medical aid or promote all kinds of COVID-19 conspiracy theories, however, when these actions become too aggressive, if self-promotion becomes indecent, counter reactions with long-tern effects occur.

After blaming China for the way it presented to the international community the internal situation regarding the spread of the Coronavirus, is the USA the main global information handler?

No. No single country has ever had that role. Nor does it exist today, anywhere.