The EU Wished and still Wishes the Integration of the Western Balkans

As I have repeatedly and persistently said many times before, in the context of the Thessaloniki integration promises (2003) and in the context of the regional and global evolutions, the Western Balkans are a priority to the EU, a fact which is becoming more and more visible these days.

Hence, we must not forget the position of the former German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, who, during her mandate, fervently lobbied for the EU integration of all entities in the Western Balkans, due to strategic reasons. This revealed a reality that implied the necessity to combat the Chinese and Russian influence in the region. Besides, we should mention that Angela Merkel stated at that time that the European integration of the Western Balkans was also favoured by the French president, Emmanuel Macron.

It is equally important to mention that Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission made public that “the acceleration of the EU enlargement to the Western Balkans is a priority, so regional partners should be supported in their efforts to apply the necessary reforms that take them further on the path of European integration”.

We must notice that after the leaders of the EU agreed in June 2022 to make Moldova and Ukraine candidates for the European Union and said that Georgia would be eligible for candidacy, once it met the objectives defined by the European Commission, a month later, the EU started to negotiate the integration of Albania and North Macedonia, following a significantly long blockade.

In its turn, Bosnia and Herzegovina took a step closer to joining the powerful economic block, following the European Council Summit that took place on the 15^th December 2022, when EU leaders agreed to make BiH a candidate for the European Union, despite existent criticism to the way the country is governed.

Kosovo is getting closer to the EU as well, once it signed a Stabilisation and Association Agreement, and especially when its president, Vjosa Osmani announced that, by the end of 2022, the country he leads intends to apply for EU integration.

We must highlight that the NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg referred and emphasized that supporting BiH (in the same context referring to Moldova and Georgia as well) is essential in the light of the war in Ukraine. J. Stoltenberg noted that BiH, a country where Russia interfered and where ethnic tensions led to a long-term political instability was “important to the stability of the entire region of the Western Balkans”.

Again, it is worth mentioning the point of view of the Austrian Integration Minister, Susanne Raab, who, on the 3^rd November 2022, during the “Berlin Process” (an event that took place in Berlin, initially set up by Angela Merkel in 2014) said that “the EU should accelerate the integration of the countries in the Western Balkans, to make sure that other countries will not be able to exert their influence in the EU’s immediate vicinity”. Furthermore, the Austrian official stated at the end of the summit that “the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine clearly showed that we, the EU must take action when it comes to the European integration of the six countries in the Western Balkans. We cannot afford to allow other powers to exert their influence on our immediate vicinity”.

The Netherlands Will Start Adopting a Favourable Position to the Acceleration of the EU Integration of the Western Balkans

We can clearly notice that there is a new intensification of the position adopted by the EU regarding the acceleration on the integration of the Western Balkans. Why do we say that? Because the public opinion in the Netherlands is still very sceptical or critic when it comes to EU enlargement. Nevertheless, the attitudes and positions adopted with respect to the integration of the Western Balkans seem to change significantly in the Netherlands as well. And it has been almost 20 years since the summit in Thessaloniki (2003). We noticed this evolution even if the countries in the Western Balkans are seen in certain circles as a hole in the heart of Europe. The difference between the declarations and what is actually being done is huge, and time frames appear as irrelevant to certain decision-makers and certain political elites in the EU and the Western Balkans.

Therefore, we can safely say that we are witnessing the confirmation of the fears of the EU with regard to Russia and China’s extending influence in the Western. This was made known at the EU-Western Balkans Summit held in Tirana on the 6^th December 2022. During this important event, the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz spoke about a new position in the EU regarding the Western Balkans. At the end of the Summit that took place in the capital of Albania, the EU leaders reaffirmed “the full and unequivocal commitment to the prospects of the Western Balkans’ accession to the EU, and called for the acceleration of the accession process”. An equally suggestive message was sent from the other side. The Albanian Prime Minister and host of the Tirana Summit, Edi Rama, asked the EU to take action, emphasizing that “the EU needs the Western Balkans, as much as the Western Balkans need the EU” and they “must face the future together”.

So, we see that the emphasis on the enlargement of the EU has changed significantly, and relatively sudden. Regardless of the evolution of the situation in Ukraine, the EU seems to speed up the project of accession of the Western Balkans, despite the fact that besides the perspective and opinions expressed by decision-makers, there is the public opinion that could have a significant impact on this equation, especially when we see that there are two different public opinions – the one in the Western Balkans and the one in the EU Member States.

We must not forget that in 2016, the Netherlands organized a referendum regarding the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, where 2/3 of the voters opposed the agreement, proving that Euroscepticism is dominant in the Netherlands. Today, it seems that attitudes changed considerably, because almost 80% of the Dutch public opinion is concerned with the consequences of the war in Ukraine. However, because of this war, 26% wish the EU expanded quickly.

At the same time, apropos of the EU enlargement in the Western Balkans, the Dutch public opinion is suggestively divided. The majority does not consider the issue of enlargement to be very important, as found in the study “Strict, Fair and More Open to the Enlargement of the EU! The Dutch Public Opinion on the Membership of the Western Balkans (carried out by the European Fund for the Balkans, BiEPAG and Dpart). The study concluded that 45% of the respondents were in favour of the accession to the EU of the countries in the Western Balkans: more precisely, 38% of the respondents said that it would be relatively nice, while 7% said that it would be great if countries like Albania, BiH, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia joined the EU. In contrast, 34% of respondents were against, while 21% were undecided. On the other hand, while the public opinion cares about compliance with EU accession criteria, most know little about them or about the countries that could join the Union. About 42% of Dutch survey respondents correctly identified the six Western Balkan states, while in other groups, only a few were able to name the countries belonging to the so-called Western Balkan group of states.

Most of the public opinion is not familiar with the veto the Netherlands has, as a Member State. When it comes to the enlargement process, 60% believe that if the Western Balkans join the EU, Turkey will automatically join as well. Those who trust the EU are expected to tend to approve policies such as the enlargement policy, while sceptics trust more their national governments and question the EU’s European policies. What can we learn from these findings? The public opinion in the Netherlands changed significantly. Even though people do not see the matter as very important, they are not against it either. It is surprising that the politicians were, to some extent, amazed by these changes, which leads us to conclude that the public opinion was and probably still is used as an excuse for the adoption of decisions that give rise to controversies. We could say that, most likely, decision-makers used their constituencies to justify their lack of vision, geopolitical courage and, even more, their inaction. The key question is: what would be the cost of failure if the EU did not act decisively for the integration of the Western Balkans?

As we well know, Kosovo is the last country in the Western Balkans that has not yet joined the EU visa liberalization, which would allow its citizens to travel freely within the EU for up to 90 days. Despite the European Commission’s positive assessment (2018) with regard to Kosovo meeting formal reference criteria, the Netherlands, and several other EU Member States objected, citing concerns about the rule of law. As expected, the status quo has led to a politicization of the process and more frustration. Familiarity with these different stands is essential, to be able to identify the course of action needed to be taken, so the Netherlands and Kosovo overcome this obstacle. Recent developments show how the Dutch are slowly changing their mind, arguing that despite existing differences, visa liberalization could take place towards the end of 2022. This development should motivate both Kosovo and the Netherlands, to take advantage of the current regional and global evolutions.

In Conclusion

Although we can still see that there are visible long-term differences between the six Western Balkan entities, and we are referring to the pace of EU accession talks, as well as to complicated bilateral issues that linger, EU officials believe that now, more than ever they should make it clear that the six nations in the Western Balkans belong to the European family, so that they do not turn to Russia or China.

As Luigi Scazzieri, a researcher at the Centre for European Reforms (a London based think-tank) said, “no one is close to joining the EU”. Furthermore, Luigi Scazzieri emphasized that they “all must overcome substantial obstacles in order to meet the Copenhagen criteria, which define the EU’s standards of strong democratic institutions, a functional market economy and the ability to assume the obligations of accession”.

At the same time, as the EU Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement, Olivér Várhelyi, stated during his visit to Belgrade, prior to the Tirana Summit that “the enlargement policy is one of the EU leaders’ top three priorities” and “the only real long-term solution for peace, stability and prosperity is their [Western Balkans] accession to the EU.”