The constant tensions between Serbia and Kosovo that have been present ever since 2008 (when the former Yugoslavian province declared its unilateral independence) are now intensifying. These evolutions are also influenced by permanent strains, persisting in the relation between the government in Pristina and the ethnic Serbs, a majority in North Kosovo, who have close ties with Belgrade.

Government attempts to exert more control in the North, dominated by the ethnic Serbs are being thwarted most of the time, even though, ever since October 2020, the former prime minister of Kosovo, Avdullah Hoti lowered their hopes when it came to establish the Serbian Municipalities’ Association of North Kosovo (SMAK), a semi-autonomous, long-promised organisation. Decreasing pressure then as well, the former Kosovo prime minister said that no decisions would be taken before an inclusive agreement with Serbia was signed.

The current Kosovo prime minister, Albin Kurti, recently expressed his point of view with regard to establishing a SMAK, saying that it is unconstitutional, the local population is against it and this is what Belgrade wishes. Serbian ethnics see such an association as an executive structure, which would function at the same time with the government in Pristina. Belgrade demands it in the negotiations with Kosovo. “These requests for the autonomy of the areas where there is a Serbian majority – in North Kosovo – did not come from the local population. They only came from Belgrade, so it could compensate for its losses, however, this cannot be”, highlighted A. Kurti.

Taking into account the most recent evolutions regarding the so-called settlement of the “Kosovo file”, we must emphasize that the former Kosovo prime minister, A. Hoti, proved the existence of a “principle, established with the foreign mediators of the dialogue with Serbia, that says nothing will be agreed on, unless everything is agreed on”. This implies identifying a comprehensive solution to the dispute with Serbia.

Moreover, we can underscore that all Kosovar leaders agreed and still fervently do with A. Hoti’s opinion that “nothing will be implemented until there is a final mutual recognition between Serbia and Kosovo, an agreement that should be ratified by the Parliament in Pristina”. Kosovo’s politicians expressed their concerns that the SMAK could turn into a small Serbian state that could threaten Kosovo’s integrity and sovereignty, referring in this context to a similar situation – another Serbian entity, in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Republic of Srpska.

Source: www.insightturkey.com/commentaries/the-proposed-territorial-exchange-between-serbia-and-kosovo

Due to the most recent events at the border between Serbia and Kosovo, the Serbian President, Aleksandar Vučić had a firmer attitude and ordered that they should “take every measure to protect the Serbian people from Kosovo”. Under such circumstances, Serbia placed its security forces at the border with Kosovo, at present in a state of “combat readiness”, fact confirmed by other Belgrade officials. This is because of the strained relations between Serbia and Kosovo, and despite the EU and NATO’s requests to manage, control and decrease tensions, at a time influenced by the effects of the Russian invasion in Ukraine, which also impacted the Western Balkans.

In the context of the evolutions in the Western Balkans, on the eve of 26^th December 2022, the Serbian minister of defence, Miloš Vučević stated that “the President of Serbia […] ordered the Serbian Armed Forces to enter a state of full combat readiness, the highest level of action carried out by the military”. The Serbian official added that President Vučić also ordered that the number of the Serbian Army Special Forces should be raised from 1,500 to 5000 soldiers. For his part, the Serbian minister for interior, Bratislav Gašić stated that he “ordered full combat readiness” for the police and other security units that would be placed under the command of the Serbian army chief of staff, according to their “operational plan”. It is worth mentioning that B. Gašić insisted that his actions were according to the orders of President A. Vučić, so that “all measures be taken to protect the Serbian people in Kosovo”.

Vučić’s orders come after the head of the Serbian Army, general Milan Mojsilović was sent on Sunday, 25^th December 2022, to the Kosovo border, where the Serbian troops were on high alert. We must mention that before matters led to this situation, there were other events that contributed to this deteriorating security situation.

Hence, ever since November 2022, in North Kosovo, where the population is mostly made of Serbians, hundreds of employees – ethnic Serbs – working for the police and the justice system – district attorneys and judges – quit their jobs as a sign of protest to the controversial decision that forbade the Serbs, who lived in Kosovo, to use Serbian license plates. Furthermore, on the 26^th December 2022, NATO’s peacekeeping forces stated they were investigating an incident caused by a gunshot in North Kosovo, calling for calm. At that time, Serbia’s high military officials inspected their border troops that were demonstrating their readiness and combat skills. The Sunday night incident took place in Zubin Potok, a town where, for the past two weeks, the ethnic Serbs blocked roads, and tensions increased. According to preliminary KFOR investigations, it seems that the gunshot came from unidentified persons, and occurred in the patrol area, very close to one of the KFOR patrols. No one was injured. The investigation continues.

Increased violence at the Serbian-Kosovar border has been present ever since the start of the Russian war in Ukraine. Serbia is counting on Russia and China in its attempt to claim its former province, whose independence was recognised by the USA and by most of the EU Member States. As a consequence, rising tensions cause more and more problems in the region, especially when the international community is trying harder and harder to mediate the “misunderstandings” between Belgrade and Pristina. The ethnic Serbs in the North have recently blocked the roads, as a sign of protest to the arrest of a former Serb policeman.

Therefore, the Kosovo government asked NATO troops to remove Serb road blocks. The Kosovo Prime Minister, A. Kurti, the KFOR commander, Major General Angelo Michele Ristuccia, and Lars Gunnar Wingermark, the head of the EULEX mission met (26^th December 2022) to discuss the current situation in the region. According to the official statement, the “mutual conclusion of this meeting was that the freedom of movement needed to be restored, and that the lines of communication should not be blocked.”

In exchange, Serbia asked KFOR to deploy 1000 troops in North Kosovo, an area inhabited by Kosovo Serbs, to protect them from the ethnic Albanian’s alleged harassment. It is worth mentioning that one of the elements that contributed to the deterioration of the current security situation was the fact that the Serbian Patriarch, Porfirije, was forbidden to enter Kosovo (26^th December 2022). He told the authorities at the border crossing that he wanted to send a message of peace on the occasion of the Serbian Orthodox Christmas that is celebrated on the 7^th January 2023.

To sum up, Belgrade has the army on high alert because of the tense relationship with Pristina, a recurrent situation in the past years. The Serbian Armed Forces are currently in a state of “full combat readiness”. At present, the tensions between Serbia and Kosovo are at their highest in the past years.

It is important to highlight that Belgrade intensively encourages the 120,000 Kosovo Serbs to defy the authorities in Pristina – especially in the north, where the Serbs represent the majority. In this regard, there is a question that needs our consideration: how will the situation in the Western Balkans change, if the general security situation in North Kosovo deteriorates quickly and affects the entire region? We are interested in finding its answer, because we believe that should the overall situation in north Kosovo worsen, its effects will definitely influence the evolution of events in the Serbian territories, where the majority of the population is made of Albanians (Preševo, Bujanovac and Medveđa).

Furthermore, we seek to find the answer to the previous question, because long before Russian tanks and troops reached Ukraine, in February 2022, the Russian President Vladimir Putin cited and argued Yugoslavia’s break-up to justify his invasion of Ukraine. He claimed that NATO bombing Serbia in 1999, and the West recognising Kosovo as an independent state set an illegal precedent that shattered the international law and order.

Putin’s personal argument, constantly repeated ever since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, was based on the fact that if the republics in former Yugoslavia and a Serbian province could become independent, after a war, with western help, then why shouldn’t Crimea – Ukraine’s strategic peninsula in the Black Sea – and the populated areas, where the majority of the population is made of Russians, declare their independence with Russia’s help? Putin’s unjustified argument was vehemently opposed. The NATO intervention in Kosovo started to counter and stop mass murders and other war crimes, committed by the Serbian troops against the ethnic Albanians. It was not the same with Ukraine, before the large-scale invasion this year. Putin is still counting on the situation in Kosovo to serve as an argument and a precedent, so he can justify his decisions and actions when he invaded Ukraine.

So, we need to say this now, more than ever that a Serbian military intervention in Kosovo would lead to a confrontation with KFOR. Under such circumstances, we need to carefully monitor Russia’s involvement in managing and influencing the evolutions in the Western Balkans.