1. There are fewer countries that recognise Kosovo’s independence, and Alexandar Vučić will not change Serbia’s constitution and end his last mandate as president, in 2027.

Based on Aleksandar Vučić’s statement from the 5^th January 2023, there are other nine countries that no longer recognise Kosovo’s independence. According to official data and information made public by A. Vučić, there are “106 countries that do not recognise Kosovo’s independence; 86 recognise it unequivocally and three countries do not have a clear stand on this”. The nine countries that no longer recognise Kosovo’s independence are: Somalia, Burkina Faso, Gabon, Eswatini (former Swaziland), Libya, Guinea, Antigua and Barbuda, St. Lucia and the Maldives. The Serbian official added that he expected a tenth state to stop recognising Kosovo’s independence, in the following period.

In the same context of the evolutions in the Western Balkans and implicitly of those in Serbia, it seems that in 2027 the Serbian presidency will be taken over by a different political figure – that is if A. Vučić’s statement with regard to refraining from changing the Serbian Constitution remain the same.

Under these circumstances, A. Vučić will not be able to run for another term. He also added that he would no longer be the head of his party – the Serbian Progressive Party. “This is my last term and I do not intend to change the Constitution or anything like it. In the first half of the next year I will no longer be the head of my party”, said the Serbian president.

Comments:

As we well know, the conflict between Serbia and Kosovo is growing significantly. It is important to emphasize here that in May 2022, after Kosovo applied for European membership with the European Council, Serbia declared that it would restart its campaign for Kosovo’s non-recognition as an independent state. This process was accelerated lately in all sectors, including the diplomatic one.

In September 2020, Serbia and Kosovo signed, in Washington, an economic cooperation agreement. The leaders in Belgrade committed that they would stop the campaign that aims at convincing countries “not to recognise” Kosovo’s independence, while the leaders in Pristina promised to stop applying for their membership to international organisations. Nevertheless, the agreements they signed did not have much impact, except perhaps when Israel recognised Kosovo’s independence, in February 2021.

It is very clear for everyone that both parties agreed to freeze their diplomatic campaigns regarding the recognition/non-recognition of Kosovo’s independence. Despite this, one can see that, once in a while, new tensions arise between Belgrade and Pristina, just like the latest that died down when the barricades that were blocking border crossings between the two, were lifted.

According to data available in July 2022, Kosovo was recognised as independent by 199 countries. However, in the context of the fierce competition between Serbia and Kosovo, some of these “recognitions” are ambiguous or contested. Even more so, some countries withdrew their recognition because of the political pressure applied by the countries that favour Serbia to Kosovo. Therefore, the real number of countries that recognised Kosovo seems to be unclear, but it is closer to 99. If we are to take into account the nine mentioned by A. Vučić, as having withdrawn the recognition of Kosovo’s independence, then the total number of countries that recognise Kosovo’s independence at the present is 90.

2. Borjana Krišto, the vice-president of the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ – the main party representing the Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina) was elected and invested as the Prime Minister of Bosnia and Herzegovina for the next four years.

61 years old Borjana Krišto, the vice-president of the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ – the main party representing the Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina), and member of this party since 1995 was elected and invested as the president of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina. She will lead the state government for the next four years. She will also be responsible for managing and representing the 10 members governmental body.

“I believe that with appreciation and respect for the diversity and rights of each constituent people, we can build a common, functional and long-lasting country” said B. Krišto.

For the first time in history the prime-minister elect was asked to present her four-year governing programme in front of the members of the BiH presidency, an action that is usually done before the House of Representatives, before the institution validates the elections.

We must notice that B. Krišto did not answer to a Croat member of the presidency – Željko Komšić – who voted against her. Her investment was the result of a coalition agreement between her own party and the Social Democratic Party – the state representative of a coalition made of Bosniak parties and civil organisations from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (the second entity that along the Republic of Srpska make Bosnia and Herzegovina) – and the Alliance of Social Independent Democrats (the main Serb political party).

Krišto is well known to Bosnian politics, and in her 27-year-old career she also was the minister for justice of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Comment:

From 2007 to 2011, B. Krišto was the president of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. After that she served in the two chambers of the state parliament – firstly in the House of Peoples and later in the House of Representatives – for two consecutive mandates. Just like the current BiH President, Dragan Čović, B. Krišto supports the changes of the electoral law in her country.

During the 2022 October elections, Krišto was one of the candidates for the Croat presidency. However, she lost with almost 47,000 votes, compared to the number of votes that Željko Komšić received. He was elected president for the fourth time.

3. The head of the Albanian community in Serbia says that the unannounced arrest of an Albanian national – under the suspicion of terrorism – as an action that deliberately “targets” the entire Albanian community.

The President of the Albanian National Council, who represents the Albanian community in Serbia, Ragim Mustafi, said that the communique of the Security Intelligence Agency (SIA) of Serbia regarding the arrest of a person suspected of terrorism was aimed at “the Albanian community” in Serbia.

SIA made public that on the 2^nd January 2023, together with the Serbian police they had arrested, in Bujanovac, a person called “A. B.”, an Albanian national, suspected of having committed “terrorist acts”.

The Serbian district attorney for organised crime stated on the 5^th January 2023 that Arven Baleri, an Albanian from Kosovo had been detained two days before, and was investigated for the production, possession, transportation, and trafficking of illegal weapons and explosives, and for the association with other persons, with the intent of committing illegal acts.

The press release showed that “The suspect was found in possession of a large quantity of weapons, munitions and explosive devices – ten rifles, a sniper gun with a silencer, a kilo of explosives and a large amount of ammunition”. “We suspect the weapons were purchased illegally and the suspect’s intention was to further take them to Kosovo and Metohija”, said the release. The person in question was arrested for 48 hours. The Supreme Court in Belgrade stated that he had not been questioned, nor had any decisions been taken with regard to his custody.

Comment:

Mustafi claimed that the man arrested was not from Bijanovac and had come there “for the first time” using foreign license plates. Furthermore, the Albanian leader contested the text of the press release, where it did not say “a Serbian, Kosovo, Albanian national”, but only an “Albanian national”, even though he was not a member of the Albanian community in Serbia (the areas mostly inhabited by Albanian nationals in Serbia are Bujanovac, Presevo and Medvedja, at the Serbian-Kosovo border). It is interesting to witness the observation of the head of the Albanian community in Serbia, R. Mustafi, who highlighted that the newly-appointed head of the SIA, a former minister in various Serbian governments, Aleksandar Vulin had already been showing a hostile attitude towards the Albanian community, using extremely offensive words against its members.

According to the documents of the prosecution, A. Baleri, also known as Rafet Hoxa was born and resided in Podujevo (a city in the Pristina district, in North-Eastern Kosovo), but had Serbian citizenship. A. Baleri was suspected of “establishing a criminal organisation, whose members are from Serbia and the surrounding areas, and are yet to be identified.” Furthermore, he claimed that ever since the beginning of 2022, up until the 27^th of December, the organisation “purchased a large amount of weapons, ammunition, explosives and explosive devices” to be shipped and sold to Serbia, Kosovo and Western Europe.

4. Hungary is very active in granting loans to countries in the Western Balkans.

On the 5^th January 2023, the government in Montenegro confirmed receiving a 50 million Euros loan from “Crnogorska Komercijalna Banka” (CKB, a commercial bank in Montenegro, part of the Hungarian OTP group), three days after another Hungarian bank, “EXIM” approved a 110 million Euros loan for the Republic of Srpska. Montenegro’s finance minister, Aleksandar Damjanovic, stated that the loan received from CKB would be reimbursed in five years, with a one-year grace period and a fixed interest rate of 7.5%.

It is worth mentioning that during his visit in Budapest, on the 11^th November 2022, Montenegro’s finance minister A. Damjanovic met with the president and CEO of the OTP Group, Sándor Csányi, and they discussed a credit line. On the same day, A. Damjanovic and the Hungarian minister for foreign affairs and trade, Péter Szijjártó stated they had discussed about the Hungarian companies that had been taking part in infrastructure projects in Montenegro.

On the 19^th December the Republic of Srpska signed an agreement for a 110 million Euros loan with the Hungarian Import-Export Bank. It is destined for the national budget and debts. The ten-year loan with a fixed interest rate of 5% comes from the Hungarian state-owned EXIM Bank that has assets valued at almost 5 billion euros.

Comment:

Ever since Montenegro became independent in 2006, Hungarian companies – some of which are directly linked to the state – invested almost half a billion Euros in the country, mainly in the banking and telecommunications sectors.

In August 2006, the Hungarian OTP purchased the entire CKB, paying 105 million Euros. At that time, it was the top bank in the country with a market share valued at 44% and 150,000 customers, in a country with almost 620.000 citizens.

Three years later OTP bought 90.6% of Societe Generale Montenegro, for 35.6 million Euros. The OTP banks now hold 40% of the Montenegro banking sector. In October 2022 the Hungarian tech company 4iG bought the cell operator Telekom Montenegro that has almost 475,000 subscribers and a market share of 37%. There already is a Hungarian presence in Montenegro’s telecommunication network. In 2005, Magyar Telekom purchased 76.5% of Montenegro Telekom’s shares. When Viktor Orban became the Prime Minister of Hungary, in 2010, Hungarian companies – some linked to V. Orban’s Fidesz Party, which benefits from large state contracts – massively invested in Slovenia, Serbia, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia.