The overall situation in Lebanon is labelled as an ever-worsening. The poverty and turmoil are very high. Globally, it is seen as a country that is on the brink of economic collapse, because it currently is in one of the worse conditions in the world.

This country is seeing severe inflation and a very high unemployment rate, a high increase in the costs of everyday life, which lead to dire human needs. According to international studies, conducted by the World Bank in 2022, more than half of the Lebanese population is on the brink of poverty. On an international level, assessments show that Lebanon is going through a devastating economic crisis that threw 80% of the population into poverty. At least that is what the United Nations let the public know.

“The country is in an almost complete state of disintegration and we are witnessing the collapse of all state institutions that managed to survive” highlighted the analyst Karim Bitar.[1]

The current crisis “is probably the worst in Lebanon’s history” said K. Bitar about a country that has suffered enormously, a consequence of a civil conflict that took place between 1975 and 1990, as well as due to other shocks that occurred over time, on several levels.

Lebanon has one of the largest number of refugees in the world, as compared to the number of inhabitants in the country, and is currently hosting approximately 1.5 million Syrians. The refugees were affected significantly by this sudden increase in poverty; they have limited access to food, education, medical care and other basic services. In 2021 it was estimated that 90% of the households that had Syrian refugees were suffering from extreme poverty. Even though similar recordings for 2022 have not been published yet, it is likely that the numbers are still high.

There is also an increased deficiency in the public services sector, especially when it comes to the electric energy supply, which, as expected, extended to the medical assistance sector, which are seriously threatened by collapse. Basic medicine for chronic diseases, such as antibiotics, is harder and harder to procure. A quarter of the Lebanese, Palestinian and immigrant households do not have access to proper medical care.

The Russian-Ukrainian war disturbed the grain supply and threatens food security; the costs of bread increased; 57% of Lebanese households are fighting to afford food production. Lack of fuel disturbs the water supply chain, which leads to an increased dependence of water sources that are suspect of containing harmful substances for humans, especially for vulnerable communities - for example those living in improvised conditions, such as tents.

Various diseases and a high level of illness proves the impact that a weak infrastructure could have, exerting even more pressure on an already deteriorated health system, which works on a limited capacity. This is rendered worse by the mix between poor environmental management and climate change, which cause water deficits, increase the rates of forest fires and environmental degradation. These issues are a sign of poor infrastructure, lack of experience and high rate exposure to catastrophic events, which is a major concern in the context of climate change. Despite its status as a country with medium incomes, Lebanon ranks 177 out of the 182 countries in the world that is environmentally vulnerable.

Besides, political uncertainty generated by past years’ evolutions in other fields is very high. Lebanon does not have a functional government and it is stuck in a presidential void. Political volatility increased tensions amongst groups, leading to local clashes and an increase in the level of unpredictability, when it comes to functioning institutions, including those in the field of defence and security.

4,211 Lebanese and Syrian refugees were estimated to have tried to flee to other countries from January to October 2022. Their numbers have already increased three-fold since last year. This trend is very alarming, taking into account how dangerous these migrations and sea-crossings can be. In 2022 there were many tragic losses at sea – over 140 migrants drowned or were reported missing.

Over 135,000 immigrants live in Lebanon – 80 different nationalities. Migrants have been seriously affected by the deteriorating economic environment, high unemployment rates, food insecurity, bad housing, and little access to essential services, such as drinking water and medical assistance, including mental health medical services and psychological support. An increased number of immigrants are stuck and cannot return to their home countries.

A multi-sector assessment in 2022 showed that 60% of Lebanese immigrants need medical assistance. Due to the sponsorship system, many have to choose and accept bad working conditions, an illegal status, they have limited access to assistance, they risk becoming victims for human trafficking, sex trafficking, detention and deportation. Issues analysis present before the crisis, such as discrimination, sexual harassment, migrant violence, are proof that 60% of the immigrants currently residing in Lebanon need humanitarian assistance and protection (a 31% increase compared to the previous year).

International media believes that all this is the result of political and institutional paralysis that causes fear of an even bigger and more intense crisis.

Furthermore, politically speaking,  it is worth mentioning that the former president, Michel Aoun ended his mandate in October 2022 and the other political leaders keep on fighting to find a replacement, whilst proving that Lebanon’s parliament is deeply divided and cannot chose a president who can succeed Michel Aoun.

According to the agreement referring to Lebanon’s power sharing, the president of the country must be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim and the president of the parliament a Shiite Muslim.

Furthermore, the country does not have a completely functioning government, as the Prime Minister, Najib Mikati is leading an interim cabinet.

Aditionally – at a time when Lebanon does not have a president and has an interim government with diminished executive powers, the head of the Lebanese General Security Directorate, major-general Abbas Ibrahim ended his mandate, the Lebanese parliament failing to officially find a replacement for him.

As such, on the 2^nd March 2023, the head of the Lebanese General Security Directorate since 2011, major general Abbas Ibrahim quit, after attempts of extending his mandate failed. So, his mandate as the head of the Lebanese General Security Directorate ended on the above-mentioned day, when, according to the Lebanese law, he reached his retirement age of 64 years. Under these circumstances, it is worth mentioning that on the eve of the 1^st March 2023, major-general Abbas Ibrahim left his office and was replaced by brigadier-general Elias Baisary, the interim head of the Lebanese General Security Directorate.

So we can say that Lebanese politicians proved once more that they cannot makeserious decisions and did not manage to extend the mandate of the major-general Abbas Ibrahim, nor were they able to find a replacement.

“We will continue to march to serve Lebanon”, said major-general Abbas Ibrahim before he left. In this context we must specify that he is a Shiite Muslim and was advised to replace the President of the Parliament, Nabih Berry who turned 85 in January 2023, but when asked by the local press if he wanted to find a place of work in one of the ministries, he said “May God grant Berry a long life”. A. Ibrahim said that if he were offered a place of work in a ministry he would like to become a foreign minister.

Ibrahim was known for his connections to different local, regional and international personalities and entities, including Iran backed Hezbollah, the Syrian government and Western nations. Over the 12-year period when he had to diplomatically approach various difficult and sensitive matters, including the spread of the Syrian war to Lebanon, and was seen by many as a mediator of the politically divided barons in the country. Furthermore, he successfully mediated the release of the hostages in Syria. Nevertheless, we must mention that in January 2023, he was among the eight Lebanese officials whom the investigating judge accused of being involved in the August 2020 explosion, an event that took place in the Port of Beirut and killed almost 220 people.

As a conclusion we can say that the political, economic, social, financial, security and defence evolutions, the inability of the public services to provide energy resources to consumers and, not in the least, the significant devaluation, ever since 2019, of the national currency that lost most of its value in comparison to the USD, could push Lebanon closer to a serious crisis or even towards collapse. Why? Because of late, Lebanon’s situation is proof that it is going through an uncertain and grim period, without a certain political leadership, governed by an interim body with limited powers, ever since the latest elections that took place in May 2022.

[1] Karim Emile Bitar is an associate researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Affairs in Paris (IRIS) and the editor of the French monthly L’ENA hors les murs. He is an associate professor of international relations with Université Saint-Joseph (USJ) in Lebanon, an associated member of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, and a research associate with Medea Institute in Brussels.