The general situation in Lebanon seems to be even more affected, as a result of the two consecutive surprise attacks, with unpredictable developments that primarily targeted Hezbollah members. Panic, fear and critical suffering have now gripped this country, the former pearl of the East, in collapse after decades of corruption, 15 years of civil war and another war, in 2006, with Israel. Naturally, many questions have arisen about who and how the attacks might have been carried out, where the devices came from, and whether this latest development could spark a larger, major regional conflict in the Middle East.

Israel is in a difficult situation, especially since, on September 18, the UN General Assembly adopted with 124 votes in favor, 14 against and 43 abstentions a resolution demanding Israel "to end without delay its illegal presence " in the occupied Palestinian territory and to do so within 12 months. The UN General Assembly's vote is not a law, and in Israel the resolution could confirm the need to reform the UN. Israel's ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, described the vote as "a shameful decision that supports the diplomatic terrorism of the Palestinian Authority". In the context of this symbolic step revealing Israel's continued international isolation, it should not be overlooked that this non-binding vote follows a historic July advisory ruling by the International Court of Justice (ICJ), urging Israel to end its "illegal presence in the occupied Palestinian territory as as soon as possible and immediately stop all colonization activities there”. In October 2023, the UN General Assembly voted 120 to 14 with 45 abstentions to call for more humanitarian aid to be allowed into Gaza. In December 2023, the UN General Assembly voted in favor by 153 votes to 10, with 23 abstentions, to call for an immediate ceasefire.

Keeping under observation the evolution of the situation in the Middle East and trying to make valuable and pertinent analyses and forecasts, it was concluded that the conflict between Israel and Lebanon is intensifying, with the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) carrying out an airstrike in the capital of Lebanon, Beirut, and significantly intensifying its bombing in the south of this country after several days of dramatic escalation of the conflict.

On September 16, Israel revised its war goals to include the return of tens of thousands of Israelis displaced by Hezbollah bombings of their homes near the country's northern border. Officials and residents in the northern region have become increasingly vocal about the need to return to their homes after being evacuated by the attacks, putting pressure on the government to act against the threat of Hezbollah rockets from southern Lebanon, which has long been understood as a political necessity.

Hezbollah has said it will end its attacks if a ceasefire agreement is reached in Gaza. But US officials, who have tried to broker a deal, said they now believe such a deal is unlikely to be reached during the remainder of President Joe Biden's term, which ends in January 2025. All eyes on over Lebanon, there is concern that less attention will be paid to the devastation and suffering caused by Israel's nearly year-long war in Gaza, which appears to have no end in sight. On September 17, thousands of pagers purchased and used by members of the Lebanese group Hezbollah, exploded simultaneously in several parts of Lebanon - including the capital Beirut and several cities in the Beqaa Valley[1], strongholds of the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group.

The next day, on September 18, during the funerals organized for those killed in the previous attack, walkie-talkies exploded in the suburbs of Beirut and in the south of the country. At least 37 people – including children – were killed and more than 3,000 were injured, as fires broke out in dozens of houses, shops and vehicles. On September 19, after warning that a "new age" of war was about to start, Israel struck targets in Lebanon and military decision-makers approved plans "for the northern arena."

During a speech on September 19, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah called the attacks a "declaration of war" and vowed retaliation, acknowledging that the group had suffered an "unprecedented" blow. He said the two attacks "crossed all red lines". There is currently talk in the international media covering the situation in Lebanon that, as Nasrallah was speaking, a sonic boom was heard as an Israeli military jet flew over Beirut and launched what appeared to be flares over the city, while at the same time the bombings in southern Lebanon intensified. Minutes later, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed that they were striking targets to "weaken Hezbollah's terrorist capabilities and infrastructure."

For his part, the leader of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, Hossein Salami, told H. Nasrallah that Israel would face a "crushing response", the opinion expressed by the Iranian leader being highlighted by Iran's state media. Thus, on September 20, Hezbollah launched more than 140 rockets into Israel, while the IDF further intensified its bombings.

In the same context, the Lebanese government condemned the attacks of September 17 and 18, describing them as "criminal Israeli aggression" and a violation of their national sovereignty. As a result, Lebanon's foreign minister, Abdallah Bou Habib, said on September 18 that he feared the back-to-back attacks in Lebanon signaled a move to "begin a war", calling on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and The US to help restore peace along the Lebanese-Israeli border. It is less clear what capacity Hezbollah might have to launch a counterattack, with many of its members now wounded and key methods of communication no longer reliable. Meanwhile, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant appeared to refer to the said attacks during a visit to an air force base – praising the military's “excellent achievements”, pointing out that: “ We are at the beginning of a new era in this war and we must adapt." On September 18, Y. Gallant also said: “Our goal is to ensure the safe return of communities in northern Israel to their homes. As time goes on, Hezbollah will pay an increasing price." The Israeli official congratulated the Mossad for its "great achievements" but stopped short of claiming responsibility for the two days of attacks in Lebanon.

As expected, UN Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the attacks and called for restraint from both Hezbollah and Israel, while the UN Security Council convened on September 20 to discuss the unprecedented operations in what appeared to be a massive supply chain breach, allegedly by Israeli intelligence. For his part, Volker Türk, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights condemned the attacks in Lebanon, calling them a violation of international humanitarian law and calling for an "independent, thorough and transparent investigation".

Trying a more complex analysis of the environment and the causes that were the basis of the two attacks on September 17 and 18, 2024, many questions arise about who and how could have carried out the mentioned attacks and where did the devices that were detonated come from. As expected, Hezbollah remains extremely secretive, given that its leader has previously urged families to throw away their cellphones to avoid infiltration by Israeli and American spy programs. This is why so many Hezbollah members and their families rely instead on low-tech wireless communication devices such as pagers.

It should not be overlooked that all these devices that exploded were new and had been acquired by Hezbollah in recent months. Given the assumptions of some media sources, explosives would have been planted near the battery in each pager, as well as a switch for remote detonation. But now it seems that media sources have also tried to trace and identify the origin of the pagers, finding a mysterious supply chain that stretched from Asia to Europe. The damaged pagers in Lebanon reportedly bore the name of a Taiwanese manufacturer - but the company said the devices were instead manufactured and sold by a Hungarian company in Budapest. As expected, however, the Hungarian authorities denied this, saying that the Budapest-based firm was an "intermediary" with no production facilities in the country. Meanwhile, Lebanon said the walkie-talkies that exploded were a model manufactured by the Japanese firm ICOM, but whose production had been discontinued. The devices were not provided by a known agent, were not officially licensed and were not vetted by security services, as Lebanese authorities said. ICOM, for its part, pointed out that production of the model of the identified walkie-talkies was discontinued a decade before, and it could not be determined whether those used in Lebanon are counterfeit or purchased and shipped from this company.

In conclusion, we can say that we are currently witnessing an armed confrontation between the state of Israel and Hezbollah, a faction supported by Iran, being clear that the latter state supports intense actions and threats in a competition that could become another imminent regional war, after that in Ukraine and which could significantly threaten the future of the whole world.

[1] The Beqaa Valley is located approximately 30 km east of Beirut. It is the northern continuation of the Jordan Valley and is part of the Great Rift Valley, which stretches from Syria to the Red Sea. The Beqaa Valley is 120 kilometers long and 16 kilometers wide.