A gradual build-up of Russian military on the North-East, East and South borders with Ukraine began at the beginning of March 2021.
The Ukrainian military consider two possible scenarios for the current Russian military activity:
- A demonstration of force as a warning to Ukraine not to try to liberate the occupied territories by force.
- An escalation of hostilities in the East of Ukraine followed by Russian attempts to expand the area of occupation.
Coronavirus pandemic, falling oil prices and the approaching global economic crisis may affect the course of the negotiations to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in Eastern Ukraine.
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